Last year, the Cleveland Browns used the first overall pick on Myles Garrett, a highly regarded pass-rusher out of Texas A&M. Both the advanced stats and the scouts agreed: Garrett was a bona fide elite talent with abilities commensurate with a No. 1 overall pick. Although Garrett struggled with injuries in his rookie year, overall the early returns have been positive: Garrett recorded 7.0 sacks in only 11 games played.
Bradley Chubb, another highly rated edge rusher prospect, likely sits near the top of many teams' draft boards this year. However, according to Football Outsiders' model for projecting edge rushers, SackSEER, the case for drafting Chubb high is not quite as clean as the case for taking Garrett No. 1 overall last year.
SackSEER's projections are based on a statistical analysis of the factors that have historically correlated to success as an NFL edge rusher. SackSEER has predicted success for current stars Von Miller, Khalil Mack and Justin Houston. SackSEER also has identified several high-profile busts at the edge rusher position, including Dion Jordan, Marcus Smith and Jarvis Jones. SackSEER had its fair share of misses as well, but it nevertheless provides a good starting point for discussing the likelihood that an edge rusher prospect will collect high sack numbers at the NFL level.
For more detail on how SackSEER works, click here to check out the full detail at the bottom of the article.
What follows is a ranking of the top edge rusher prospects for 2018, according to our model, and the list does not begin with Chubb: